We present here  some results of the near real time (once in 90 minutes) running of our  3D magnetosheath gasdynamic numerical model. The determination of the shape and position of the bow shock and the magnetopause is a part of the solution.  

The red lines correspond to the parameter values, measured by ACE at the pointed time moment. (Note that "the same" solar wind reaches the earth about one hour later);
The green lines correspond to a time   moment, which is 90 minutes earlier;
The blue lines are obtained three hours earlier that red ones.
The dashed line presents for comparison the magnetopause, predicted by the semi empirical model  of Shue et al., 1998, under the same (the latest)  conditions.

The axes are scaled in earth radiuses

One can understand the model approach from the 2D variant of the model, presented in the paper of Kartalev et al., 1996.  The utilized here 3D variant was developed by V. Keremidarska and M.Kartalev. The Internet adaptation was helped by K.Grigorov and  D.Romanov.

Besides the 3D generalization, an essentially  new point in the present  approach is the usage of the realistic  Tsyganenko magnetosphere model   T96_01 (http://www-spof.gsfc.nasa.gov/Modeling/group.htmlhttp://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/space/cgm/t96.html)  for ensuring the pressure balance at the magnetopause. This version of Tsyganenko model  is parameterized by the IMF By and Bz components, solar wind dynamic pressure, and the Dst index used as the input parameters. The needed geodipole tilt angle is determined using the code of Tsyganenko and Peredo
( http://www-istp.gsfc.nasa.gov/Modeling/geopack.html ) .

Note:   We   switch  off  the option  "built in magnetopause shape"   in  the code T96_01. Only the case "inside the magnetosphere" (case (1) there) is in use here. The magnetopause position is settled during the solution   satisfying only the pressure balance condition.

In this realisation we  use a real time ACE data (gopher://sec.noaa.gov:70/11/lists/ace/ ), averaged  over a 6 minutes time interval.
We acknowledge  Paul O'Brien from UCLA for kindly providing the  real time Dst index  (http://obrienpc.igpp.ucla.edu/unixwww/rt_dst/ ). See also the papers of  O'Brien and McPherron,  2000.

Note: The solar wind electron temperature Te, essential in determining the Mach number, is not available yet in the ACE Internet site. Currently we accept an estimate, based on the available in real time proton temperature T:
Te = 3 Tp   

Acknowledgments: This project was partially supported by  Bulgarian Science Foundation (Grants NZ 522 and MU I 0598)

References:

Fairfield, D. H., N. A. Tsyganenko, A. V. Usmanov, and M. V. Malkov, A large magnetosphere magnetic field database, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 11319-11326, 1994.

Kartalev M.D, V.I.Nikolova, V.F.Kamenetsky and I.P.Mastikov. On the self-consistent determination of dayside magnetopause shape and position. Planet. Space. Sci, Vol.44, No 10, pp 1195-1208, 1996

O'Brien, T. P. and R. L. McPherron. An Empirical Phase-Space Analysis of Ring Current Dynamics: Solar Wind Control of Injection and Decay. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 7707, 2000. IGPP # 5232

O'Brien, T. P. and R. L. McPherron. Forecasting the Ring Current Index Dst in Real Time. In press Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2000 (Special issue proceedings of Space Weather Week, 1999). IGPP # 5433

Tsyganenko, N. A. and M. Peredo, Analytical models of the magnetic field of disk-shaped current sheets, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 199-205, 1994.

Tsyganenko, N. A., Modeling the Earth's magnetospheric magnetic field confined within a realistic magnetopause, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 5599-5612, 1995.

Shue, J.-H, J.K.Chao, H.C.Fu, C.T.Russell, P.Song, K.K.Khurana, and H.J.Singer. A hew functional form to study the solar wind control of the magnetopause size and shape. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 9497, 1997.

Shue, J.-H., P. Song, C. T. Russell, J. T. Steinberg, J. K. Chao, G. Zastenker, O. L. Vaisberg, S. Kokubun, H. J. Singer, T. R. Detman, and H. Kawano, Magnetopause location under extreme solar wind conditions, J. Geophys. Res.,   103, 17,691, 1998.